Persistent uncertainty is set to derail $2.5 trillion worth of global construction activity in 2025, threatening to disrupt project delivery, erode margins, and stall progress across major markets. That’s the key finding from Building certainty in an era of relentless change, a new report from Currie & Brown, an international cost management, project management and advisory firm.
Surveying more than 1,000 global decision-makers, each managing construction pipelines worth an average of $12.9 billion, the research paints a stark picture of how volatility and systemic inefficiencies are undermining the resilience of the global construction industry.
$2.5 trillion in lost construction activity
On average, respondents reported a financial loss equivalent to 13.7% of their total construction pipeline over the past year. That amounts to $2.1 billion per organisation, a figure that, in real terms, could fund two major hospitals or construct up to 40 high schools in a developed economy.
When extrapolated to global construction spending, these findings equate to an astonishing $2.5 trillion loss. To put that in perspective, that’s more than the GDP of Italy, and nearly twice the combined annual revenue of Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.
Such losses highlight not only the scale of economic risk at play, but also the strategic vulnerability of an industry that underpins global growth, employment and social infrastructure.
The cost of uncertainty: delays, descopes and cancellations
Over the past year alone, the research shows:
- 32% of projects were descoped,
- 29% experienced delays, and
- 25% were cancelled outright.
Just one in five construction leaders (20%) expressed complete confidence that they could keep projects within budget under current market conditions.
The leading causes of uncertainty are now well established:
- Material cost inflation,
- Energy price volatility,
- Supply chain disruption, and
- Labour and skills shortages.
However, the study warns that volatility is likely to intensify rather than stabilise.
A striking 61% of respondents expect material cost inflation to worsen over the next 12–24 months, while 56% anticipate greater energy price instability, a trend that could add billions in unforeseen expenditure across major infrastructure programmes.
“This goes beyond the usual cycle”
Dr Alan Manuel, Group Chief Executive Officer at Currie & Brown, said the findings reveal a new level of persistent uncertainty that goes far beyond normal market fluctuations: “The construction sector has always experienced its fair share of volatility. But this goes well beyond the usual cycle. In over 40 years in the industry, I’ve not seen such a persistently uncertain market.
“Part of the challenge lies in how we work. External factors such as rising costs, political shifts and weather events play a clear role. But systemic issues are just as critical. Outdated procurement, misaligned objectives and a culture that accepts billion-dollar projects without complete designs continue to embed risk.
“If we don’t control these challenges, the disruption will only grow. Construction underpins economies and improves lives. This industry is too important to be allowed to fall behind.”
Construction Certainty Index
In response to the findings, Currie & Brown has launched the Construction Certainty Index, a pioneering tool designed to track forward-looking confidence levels and measure the effect of risk on global construction projects.
The Index aims to help organisations benchmark their position, identify emerging threats and prioritise strategies for resilience. It represents a major step towards a data-driven approach to risk management in construction, one that integrates digital construction technologies, predictive analytics, and real-time project intelligence.
Four pillars of construction resilience
According to the report, there is no single solution to systemic uncertainty. However, four interconnected areas must be addressed to build lasting resilience and performance across the global construction market:
1. Technology: Adopt with purpose
Digital transformation remains a cornerstone of construction resilience. The key is adopting construction technology with clear purpose, leveraging tools such as Building Information Modelling (BIM), digital twins, and AI-driven cost forecasting to reduce risk and enhance predictability.
2. Data: Prioritise quality and connectivity
Effective data management in construction means ensuring data is accurate, consistent and connected across projects and programmes. The report stresses the need for robust data governance frameworks and the ability to interpret insights through the lens of real-world experience.
3. People: Strengthen skills and partnerships
As the construction skills shortage deepens, organisations must plan workforce needs early, harness technology to boost productivity, and form long-term partnerships to secure access to the right expertise at the right time.
4. Mindset: Build agility and proactive risk culture
A shift in mindset is vital. Leaders must embrace agile project delivery, collaborative procurement models, and proactive construction risk management practices that anticipate change rather than react to it.
A call for global collaboration
The report concludes with a clear message: tackling systemic uncertainty cannot fall to contractors alone. A coordinated global effort, spanning governments, clients, consultants, and delivery partners, is essential to safeguard the resilience and competitiveness of the construction sector.
In a world defined by political volatility, environmental disruption, and digital transformation, building certainty in construction has never been more critical. The $2.5 trillion figure is more than a warning, it’s a wake-up call for an industry that sits at the heart of global economic stability.
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